15 avril 2020 | Local, Technologies propres, Méga données et intelligence artificielle, Fabrication avancée 4.0, Systèmes autonomes (Drones / E-VTOL), Conception et essais virtuels, Fabrication additive

COVID-19 – HOW WE WILL NEED TO RETHINK THE AEROSPACE INDUSTRY

COVID-19 – HOW WE WILL NEED TO RETHINK THE AEROSPACE INDUSTRY

Manfred Hader

SENIOR PARTNER, CO-HEAD OF GLOBAL AEROSPACE & DEFENCE PRACTICE

Hamburg Office, Central Europe

+49 40 37631-4327

Plunge in air traffic will deeply impact demand for new aircraft

The COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to trigger a global economic crisis of significant dimensions, affecting all industries. One of the industry sectors in the eye of the coronavirus storm is aerospace. Global air traffic has been brought to an almost complete standstill by the COVID-19 outbreak. While air traffic has consistently shown a solid recovery from previous crises, the debate is wide open about how traffic will recover following the current crisis and what this will mean for the civil aircraft manufacturing industry, the supply chain and aftermarket support businesses.

Previous crises like 9/11, SARS or the financial crisis of 2008/09 all demonstrated a recovery along V- or U-shaped curves back to the pre-crisis growth path. As COVID-19 is a fully global crisis of unprecedented magnitude, we need to consider whether we might see an L-shaped recovery with consistently lower levels of air traffic and permanently slower growth after the crisis.

The debate is fueled by two questions for which there is no real precedent to extrapolate from but which could be transformational for the industry:

  • What is the magnitude of the COVID-19 crisis, and will it change the way we perceive air transport?
  • Will the crisis highlight obsolete industry structures and cause the bubble of huge aircraft orderbooks to burst?

This article discusses three key questions:

  • 1. How deep will the crisis be for aviation, and how long will it last?
    We examine different scenarios for global air traffic development in the coming years.
  • 2. What will be the impact on the aerospace industry?
    We derive the impact of these scenarios on the demand for new aircraft and MRO (maintenance, repair and operations).
  • 3. What needs to be done to manage the crisis?
    We discuss what the aerospace industry could look like in a post-COVID-19 world and what measures need to be taken to mitigate risks and capture opportunities.

1. How deep will the crisis be and how long will it last?

The magnitude of the air traffic crisis can be characterized by four key indicators:

The longer the restrictions last, the more airlines will run out of liquidity, leading to bankruptcies, nationalizations or consolidation, hence causing an irreparable change in the industry landscape and customer structure for aircraft manufacturers. Moreover, the longer the restrictions last, the greater the possibility that temporary behavioral changes imposed by the pandemic may become permanent (e.g. reduction of business travel as a result of increased digital communication).

Once the air travel restrictions are lifted, the time to recovery will be impacted by potential new outbreaks of the disease, leading to recurrent waves of further travel restrictions and hence fluctuating travel volume at lower levels.

The combination of a long duration of travel restrictions and repeated outbreaks over an extended period of time might lead to a "new normal", with global air traffic volumes settling at a lower level – an effect that has never occurred before in the history of commercial aviation.

The combination of a long duration of travel restrictions and repeated outbreaks over an extended period of time might lead to a "new normal", with global air traffic volumes settling at a lower level – an effect that has never occurred before in the history of commercial aviation.

3. What needs to be done to manage the crisis?

It can already be anticipated that the post-crisis aerospace industry will not look like it did before the crisis:

  • Significant downsizing of operations is to be expected for both OEMs and suppliers – the industry will need to offset the resulting loss of scale with a step up in efficiency, potentially taking advantage of the crisis to take actions that would be unpalatable in easier times.
  • Weaker suppliers (e.g. those with heavy exposure to the B737, more aftermarket exposure and less counter-cyclical defense business) will come under severe financial pressure.
  • A significant consolidation of the industry by companies with strong balance sheets must be expected, either to take advantage of distressed assets or to bail out suppliers to safeguard the stability of their supply chain.

One of two possible post-crisis industry models could emerge:

  • 1. A more OEM-centric industry model whereby the OEMs consolidate key parts of the supply chain to stabilize and rationalize it.
  • 2. A more balanced industry model between OEMs and key Tier-1 suppliers, where the Tier-1s have consolidated even more, amassed scale and are now on a level playing field with the OEMs.

As the aerospace industry relies on a highly interconnected and mutually dependent supply chain, the crisis needs to be managed on two levels in parallel:

On an individual company level, cash will be king. Protecting cash positions will be key to ensuring survival while managing the ramp-down, stabilizing and securing the supply chain and seizing opportunities in the market – we may therefore expect a cash squeeze in May and June as new production schedules become established but activities have not yet been rationalized. Preparing for the "new normal", rightsized and potentially repositioned operations must start immediately. To this end, the company's strategy, its industrial footprint and operating model, needs to be reviewed and a blueprint developed to fit with the "new normal" and provide the right framework for short-term actions and strategic moves.

At industry level, companies and governments will need to work closely together to ensure that key industrial capabilities do not fall through the cracks, as this would put the whole industry at risk. Therefore, the industry will have to:

  • Quickly reach a consensus on the "new normal" production rates
  • Define a joint plan for how to transform the industry from its status quo to the "new normal" level
  • Identify at-risk elements in the transition process and develop plans to support them

Once this picture is clear, government support may need to be called upon to safeguard the short-term functioning of the industry and help manage the transition to the "new normal" for this strategically important sector.

https://www.rolandberger.com/en/Point-of-View/COVID-19-How-we-will-need-to-rethink-the-aerospace-industry.html

Sur le même sujet

  • Entrepreneur International
  • LES BRÈVES DE L'ACTUALITÉ | 25 AVRIL 2022

    25 avril 2022

    LES BRÈVES DE L'ACTUALITÉ | 25 AVRIL 2022

    Les brèves de l'actualités vous sont partagés par le Programme Accélérateur 360 - cliquer sur le document pour y avoir accès https://www.aeromontreal.ca/accelerateur360.html

  • HebdoSTIQ - 05 novembre 2020

    6 novembre 2020

    HebdoSTIQ - 05 novembre 2020

    Si vous avez de la difficulté à lire ce courriel, consultez la version en ligne. VOLUME 21, No 42 5 novembre 2020 Événements à venir Occasions d'affaires Actualités Tour de force pour la première édition virtuelle de la Journée Donneurs d'ordres/Fournisseurs La gestion de projets : Source de profits pour les PME Joignez-vous au prochain webinaire STIQ, présenté par Triode, le 12 novembre prochain à 12 h G.M. Précision : une entreprise en pleine expansion Découvrez la vidéo de présentation de G.M. Précision Une fonderie «verte» à Montréal-Nord : l'entreprise Vestshell Une entreprise de Montréal-Nord, qui s'est réinventée pour réduire son empreinte écologique, est devenue un modèle international en matière de développement durable dans son domaine ABB et Lion Électrique font équipe pour appuyer la mobilité électrique en Amérique du Nord Les deux entreprises ont fait équipe pour vendre de l'équipement de recharge de véhicules électriques (VÉ) et en faire l'entretien. Cette union favorisera l'essor de la mobilité électrique en Amérique du Nord Bienvenue aux nouveaux membres! STIQ est fière d'annoncer la récente adhésion de Lux Aeterna, MP Repro et Signalisation Ver-Mac à son réseau multisectoriel d'entreprises manufacturières Forum d'affaires Canada-Italie sur l'intelligence artificielle Joignez-vous à un forum virtuel d'envergure internationale sur l'intelligence artificielle du 18 au 20 novembre prochain, organisé par la Chambre de Commerce italienne au Canada Industrie 4.0 – La transformation des entreprises à l'ère de la quatrième révolution industrielle Participez à la 3e édition de cette formation, du 30 novembre au 9 décembre prochain, offerte en collaboration avec le Consortium de recherche en ingénierie des systèmes industriels 4.0 Session de coaching innovation en ligne Expansion PME offre des services d'accompagnement aux PME afin de les orienter et les outiller dans leurs démarches en exportation et en innovation Découvrez le programme de Creaform Connect ! Moitié salon et moitié conférence, cet événement virtuel gratuit est un incontournable pour les professionnels qui cherchent à relever leurs défis en développement et fabrication de produits! L'avenir d'une industrie minière post-Covid Découvrez cet article de Michel Corbin, président-directeur général, NeoSynergix Les bonnes nouvelles de l'industrie Bombardier Transport, AddÉnergie, Chantier Davie Canada, Rio Tinto, Nova Bus, Groupe Stelpro, Nouveau Monde Graphite, Hydro-Québec, Dana, Groupe Stelpro, Flextherm, Société de transports de Sherbrooke (STS) Occasions d'affaires Occasions d'affaires privées 2020CA017 – Recherche de fournisseur d'assemblage par la mesure laser Aérospatiale (manufacturier, entretien et services) 2020SC045 – Recherche une presse plieuse de 16 pouces / 220-260 tonnes. Produits métalliques Occasions d'affaires Appels d'offres publics 2020NR374 – Convoyeur mobile Machinerie 2020NR373 – Blocs et plaques de blindage en acier, pour application UCN d'accélération de particules Énergie (production et distribution) 2020NR372 – Camion fourgon aménagé pour service d'aqueduc Transport (fabrication de matériel de), sauf aérospatiale 2020NR371 – Camion fourgon atelier, pour service de travaux publics Transport (fabrication de matériel de), sauf aérospatiale 2020NR370 – Fourniture de contenants duo poubelle/recyclage pour parcs Environnement 2020NR369 – Entretien préventif, correctif ou d'urgence d'appareils de levage Machinerie 2020NR359 – Fourniture et installation de panneau électrique, pour sous-station d'usine de filtration Environnement 2020NR358 – Aménagement d'1 fourgonnette avec monte-charge et d'1 mini-fourgonnette Transport (fabrication de matériel de), sauf aérospatiale 2020NR357 – Entretien préventif, correctif ou d'urgence d'appareils de levage Énergie (production et distribution) 2020NR356 – Entretien correctif et préventif de vérins hydrauliques Énergie (production et distribution) Devenez membre Obtenez des avantages exclusifs Membres de STIQ Publiez Consultez les archives

Toutes les nouvelles